Monday Morning Faceoff: Weighing good starts and bad

by Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
October 23, 2017

Welcome to the Monday Morning Faceoff a weekly debate here on LightningInsider.com.

This new weekly feature brings together Erik Erlendsson, creator of LightningInsider.com, and Greg Linnelli, who hosts Lightning Power Play Live weekdays from 6-7 p.m. or one hour prior to puck drop on game days on TBLPowerplay.com as well as intermission host during radio broadcasts. We will also bring in special guests on a regular basis to debate topical items surrounding the Tampa Bay Lightning and around the NHL as we exchange our thoughts in a back-and-forth exchange that will appear every Monday morning.

This week Lightning Insider contributor Dan Herrejon joins Erik and Greg to discuss the fast start enjoyed by the Lightning, whether the Vegas Golden Knights need to be in the playoff conversation and what is going on with the Montreal Canadiens.

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Erik: Getting off to a good start is something every team wants to do and is a subject at every training camp around the league. For the Lightning, it was mentioned several times without being prompted by the question. After missing the playoffs last season, falling behind in the opening weeks of the season could have proven disastrous to this team.

When you looked at the schedule for Tampa Bay to start things off, the potential for a bumpy road out of the gate was there with Washington, St. Louis, Columbus and a pair of games against Pittsburgh in the opening nine games of the season. Add in that both Detroit and New Jersey were off to good starts and it could have been a pitfall for Tampa Bay.

Instead, this team has roared out of the gate with seven victories in the first nine games and points in eight. Not sure many would have predicted this team would be 7-1-1 at this point. But they’ve shown they are awake to start the season, playing with energy and passion, something they lacked in the opening two games of this season and for good stretches last season when they struggled through the middle part of the schedule.

Now we are only two-plus weeks in to the season so I don’t want to go overboard on expectations, but this team looks like they are locked in on a mission to prove last year was just a speed bump. Not everything is perfect, but the team seems perfectly in sync at the moment able to push through whatever is put in their path at the moment.

Greg, what stands out in this quick start?

Greg: What sticks out for me right now is the team is healthy. We take it for granted a little but let’s not over analyze this too much. When healthy, this roster is as good as any in the NHL.

Now, a couple of specific examples of what’s stood out with this team. Andrei Vasilevskiy is playing like Ben Bishop did two years ago. He’s winning games in net and playing at level that’s typically associated with the best goaltenders in the league. That gives confidence to everyone else on that roster.

Also, Vlad Namestnikov is complementing Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov and that can’t be understated. He could be a guy that puts up 50-60 points and that exceeds anything he’s done in previous years. It’s almost like picking up a high-end free agent and counting on him to produce on one of top two lines. That’s how good he’s been.

Dan: I think what sticks out for me is the handful of players that are playing above expectations. Yanni Gourde is one that comes to mind. The level this guy is playing with the minutes he is playing has been a big plus for the team.

You can add several others as playing better than anticipated like Mikhail Sergachev, Vasy, Namestnikov, Dan Girardi. Not to mention what a healthy Ryan Callahan brings to the team.

We all knew Stammer, Hedman and Nikita Kucherov would be their usual selves but even from those three we are seeing aspects of their game we haven’t seen before.

Erik: Speaking of teams that are off to good starts, what are we to make of the Vegas Golden Knights two weeks in to the season?

They are setting all sorts of expansion team records – first expansion team to start the season 3-0, best record for an expansion team after seven games (6-1). Three of those victories have come in overtime and then there was the emotional home opener.

This is not your typical expansion team. Because of how the expansion rules were drawn up, Vegas general manager George McPhee had plenty of talent to choose from at the expansion draft and brought in the likes of defenseman Nate Schmidt, 30-goal scorers James Neal and Jonathan Marchessault and a proven goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury.

Now, injuries are already having an effect with goaltenders Malcom Subban (groin) and Fleury (concussion) on injured reserve and will test their team, but there’s some talent on this roster. Do we have to start thinking about this team in terms of being the first expansion team to make the playoffs?

Greg: Let’s hold off on the Vegas parades for now. No doubt they are deeper and more talented than most expansion teams that enter the league but they are still flawed. I’m curious to see how much wheeling and dealing they do especially on the backend.

This team wants to continue to build for the future and the way you do that is through good trades and high draft picks. If they make the playoffs as well this year that’s all gravy but getting draft picks and prospects is still the goal.

Dan: I agree with holding off on the parades but it is impressive what they have done in the first couple weeks of the season. It is probably the best a expansion team can hope for this early to build excitement for the team.

They do have some talented players like Neal, Marchessault and Fleury but as the season progresses, I think we will see VGK be sellers as opposed to buyers come the trade deadline.

Erik: From a surprising quick start to a disappointing slow start.

The Montreal Canadiens always have expectations on them based on their history and market. But what has to be concerning about Montreal’s 1-6-1 start is the way they are losing games.

Carey Price has been the backbone of the franchise for the past decade and has covered up a lot of holes in an otherwise flawed roster through the years. He can take a team to the promised land on his own merit, but through seven games Price has looked worse than a block of swiss cheese with a 3.94 goals against average and .881 save percentage.

But on top of the poor goaltending and defense, the Canadiens can’t score either with just 13 goals in eight games and already with a -20 goal differential. I’ve always felt Montreal was a fraud of a team playing in front of the best goaltender in the world and when he doesn’t play like it (or misses time due to injury) the Canadiens get exposed.

Does Montreal have enough to turn around the poor start and be a playoff contender?.

Greg: I guess it’s still early enough for Montreal to turn their season around but it will be difficult. They do have some cap space to make a big move. Matt Duchene makes sense. Jonathan Drouin is struggling and they just don’t have enough skilled players to score goals consistently. Also, defensively they have way too many ordinary defenders.

Teams also may have to reevaluate how much they are willing to pay their goaltender. Look at some championship teams over the years. I don’t think any starting goalie made over 6 mil. That gives you the chance to fill out your roster appropriately. It’s nice to have Carey Price but what good does it do to have a suspect supporting cast if he takes up a good chunk of your salary cap?

Dan: In 2015-16 season, Price missed the last 70 games of the season and Montreal did not make the playoffs after three consecutive postseason appearances. There was a lot of smack talk back then that Price should have been MVP because without him, Canadiens went from playoff perennial to pretender.

Andrei Markov’s departure is bigger than some people anticipated. I believe after the P.K. Subban trade, Markov was the glue for that defensive group. Add to the fact that they traded Sergachev for Drouin. Granted, they needed to find scoring but may have given up a potential Top two Dman. I’m a fan of Drouin and I believe he will find his scoring touch but needs to play with the right line mates.

Montreal’s challenges are a lot bigger than Drouin but the spotlight is on him and how he handles it will determine how his career goes.

As for this season, any team with Carey Price has a chance for the playoffs. With the parity in the league, they may find themselves sniffing for a wild-card spot, but it would depend on whether they are continuing to dig in the hole they find themselves in or will they find a way to begin climbing out?

Erik: Well, things started off well for this segment and finished with a parade-worthy ending.

Thanks Dan for joining us and Greg let’s do this again, in person, this week on Lightning Power Play Liveon Tuesday beginning at 6 p.m and pick up some of this conversation for some Great Hockey Talk™as the Lightning prepare for a three-game week at Carolina on Tuesday followed by home games on Thursday against Detroit and Saturday against Anaheim. Listen for Dan to make an appearance with Greg later this week and don’t forget, I return on Thursday to host The Opening Faceoff, which will air at 4 p.m. and features an interview with a Lightning player to be determined as well as some great conversation with Bobby “The Chief” Taylor.

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