Projecting the opening night roster and line after three preseason games

by Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
September 23, 2017

TAMPA – It’s less than two weeks until the season opener. The deadline to set the roster for the season opener comes in a little over a week.

The Lightning are more than a week in to training camp and three games in to the preseason and that roster is starting to take shape.

So before Sunday’s 4 p.m. preseason game against Florida at Amalie Arena (followed by the US Women’s Olympic team facing off against a group of Lightning alumni), let’s examine how things are starting unfold and see how it compares to what it looked like two months ago after free agency died down and how things might break down in the next week leading up to the season opener on Oct. 6.

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After starting camp with 63 players, Tampa Bay heads in to the final four preseason games having narrowed the roster down to 44 players. Those who have been cut to date include: Goalies: Michael Leighton, Connor Ingram.

Defensemen: Cal Foote, Mat Bodie, Libor Hajek, Reid McNeil, Oleg Sosunov and Matt Spencer.

Forwards: Shane Conacher, Alex Gallant, Kevin Hancock, Boris Katchouk, Alexey Lipanov, Kevin Lynch, Christopher Paquette, Taylor Raddysh, Otto Somppi, and Carter Verhaeghe. (Note: Brian Hart and Cam Darcy were placed on unconditional waivers and bought out earlier in camp)

There are still two players remaining in camp who are injured and yet to be cleared for contact – Erik Condra and Jonne Tammela, while goaltender Nick Riopel remains on the camp roster for the time being, which essentially means there are 41 players vying for roster spots on the 23-man roster to start the season.

The two goaltenders to start the season are set – Andrei Vasilevskiy and Peter Budaj, so that brings us down to 39 players competing for 21 spots.

Defense: Who’s still here – Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Dan Girardi, Andrej Sustr, Slater Koekkoek, Jake Dotchin, Mikhail Sergachev, Ben Thomas, Erik Cernak, Dan Walcott, Domink Masin.

Has anything changed since July? Not really, based on everything that has transpired in camp to date hasn’t change the notion they will carry eight defensemen in to the start of the regular season – Hedman, Stralman, Girardi, Coburn, Sustr, Koekkoek, Dotchin, Sergachev. In two games Sergachev has looked strong in one and shaky in the second, but the fact he received top power play time with the team’s top power play unit shows that he’s being tested and he’ll continue to be tested before the final decisions are made. Dotchin has yet to see a game while Koekkoek has received one game to date, but none of those in contention have done enough to alter the thinking. The only thing to say about the defensive situation is that Cernak, acquired from Los Angeles for Ben Bishop, has opened up some eyes in his two appearances to date while Thomas, who had a strong second half to the season last year and in to the playoffs for Syracuse, looked comfortable in his one game. Masin figures to see time while Walcott did not look overmatched in either of his two games.

Forwards: Here’s where things are going to be interesting to keep an eye on, both in terms of what the lines might look like and who makes the roster. Who’s still here – Michael Bournival, J.T Brown, Ryan Callahan, Anthony Cirelli, Cory Conacher, Gabriel Dumont, Adam Erne, Yanni Gourde, Brett Howden, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov, Chris Kunitz, Tye McGinn, Vladislav Namestnikov, Ondrej Palat, Cedric Paquette, Matthew Peca, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, Alex Volkov and Dennis Yan.

What’s change from July: From the initial projections, I don’t think much has really changed. I believe Stamkos will play with Kucherov as a pair on the top line with Namestnikov the most likely to round out the line to start (though Point looked comfortable at left wing on Friday). Johnson and Palat (felt like I’ve written those two as a pair for a decade) will be the duo on the second line and I’d bank on Point the third guy there. I still like Gourde to center the third line with Killorn while either Calllahan or Kunitz on the right side. As far as the fourth line, I’m even more convinced that Dumont makes the roster and suits up opening night. So that’s 11 of the 13 projected forward spots spoken for at this point with the lines looking like this:

Namestnikov-Stamkos-Kucherov

Palat-Johnson-Point

Killorn-Gourde-Callahan

Kunitz-Dumont-??

While conventional wisdom suggests that Brown and Paquette figure to take up the final two spots, I’m not so sure that is necessarily the case at the moment. Peca, now in his third year as a pro, has come in to this camp with the attitude that he’s come in to win a job and he’s been allowed the opportunity to show that as he’s appeared in all three preseason games to date. Bournival, meanwhile, has come in with the same attitude and has caught the attention of some to where he has entered the conversation. Then there is Erne, who was called up toward the end of the year and remained with the team through the end of the regular season. All he’s done in his two games this preseason is score two goals.

So now we have essentially five forward competing for two open spots. At this point I might hand it to Peca, slot him in at fourth line center and push Dumont to the wing. After that, I’d probably look to keep Paquette around for his size and sandpaper factor.

Erne is the only remaining of that group that does not require waivers so that makes it an easy decision on that front. Brown and Bournival both require waivers to be reassigned to Syracuse.

Things can always change with the final four preseason games and I’d venture that more cuts are going to be made following Sunday’s before the team heads to Ft. Lauderdale on Monday with what figures to be around 30-32 players for the final three preseason games.

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