A group effort: Predicting how the expansion draft will play out for Tampa Bay Lightning

By Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
June 13, 2017

The offseason is already underway.

Just hours after Sidney Crosby picked up the Stanley Cup and paraded it around Bridgestone Arena as the Pittsburgh Penguins captured their second consecutive championship, the clock started, counting down to several key dates in the offseason calendar.

While the buyout window is the first to come up on the list, it’s not the main focus. And for Lightning fans, don’t expect Steve Yzerman to utilize it this year, despite what anybody thinks about Ryan Callahan.

After that, it’s all about the expansion draft, which will unfold over the next 10 days, culminating with the revealing taking place on June 21 during the NHL Awards show.

In the days to come, there will be plenty of speculation about which players are protected and which players Vegas will end up selecting. So I invited a few other outlets to participate in an expansion draft by providing their choices for who will be protected by Tampa Bay and which Lightning player will be selected by Vegas.

Those participating are Corey Long from NHL.com, Alex Boucher and W.B. Philip from LightningShout.com, Trevor Grout from The Scrum Sports, Chad Schnarr of BoltProspects.com and Saima Siddiqi from RawCharge.com

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To recap the rules of the expansion draft, teams are permitted to protect either (1) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender, or (2) Eight skaters and one goaltender. Players with fewer than two complete years of pro experience are exempt, so Brayden Point and Adam Erne, for example, are not eligible to be selected by Vegas.

There is also a rule that teams must expose: (1) A goaltender who is either under contract for 2017-18 or is a pending restricted free agent, (2) A defenseman who is under contract for 2017-18 and either played 40 or more NHL games last season or played in 70 or more NHL games the past two seasons, and (3) two forwards under contract for 2017-18 and either played in 40 or more games last season or played in 70 or more NHL games the past two seasons.

Vegas is required to select 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goaltenders with a minimum of 20 players under contract next season. The players selected by Vegas must also have a total cap value between 60 percent and 100 percent of the 2016-17 salary cap.

And finally, as many of you know, I’m sure, but players with a no move clause are required to be included on the protection list, unless they offered to waive it for the expansion draft. And finally, injured players – those who missed at least 60 games last season – are not eligible to be selected by Vegas. And you know what that means – yup, Mattias Ohlund is not eligible to be selected, even if he’s not under contract anymore.

So, with all that now clear, on with the predictions!

From Corey:

With the deadline for releasing the expansion draft protected list just days away I still find myself having more questions than answers about the Lightning’s strategy and when I think I have an idea of what Steve Yzerman is going to do I find myself asking even more questions.

So basically this is what *I* would do and my goal is simple: The Lightning would like to come out of the expansion draft with two things:

* Retaining Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman, Slater Koekkoek and Jake Dotchin on defense.

* Retaining their most tradeable assets at forward, Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson.

That being said I don’t believe the Lightning will trade Drouin, nor do I believe they should. Drouin was drafted to play with Steven Stamkos and even though Drouin has been on the main roster for the better part of three years he hasn’t had a lot of sustained time as Stamkos’ set-up man. Plus let’s been honest, is there another wing on the roster, outside of Nikita Kucherov, that possesses Drouin’s game? Heck no. And we’re only scratching the surface with No. 27.

Another question is whether Yzerman will ask Ryan Callahan to waive his no-move clause. According to Callahan’s agent he hasn’t asked as of Tuesday. He absolutely should ask and Callahan should have no problems waiving it since no one’s going to take that contract with a balky hip. As of now I’ll have to assume Yzerman won’t ask so on the list Callahan goes.

I’m going with the 7-3-1 format because there’s no other way for the Lightning. The good news is guys like Brayden Point, Adam Erne and Matthew Peca are exempt along with others that are likely part of the Lightning’s future as we move into 2018 and beyond.

Forwards:

Steven Stamkos

Ryan Callahan

Nikita Kucherov

Jonathan Drouin

Ondrej Palat

Tyler Johnson

Vladislav Namestnikov

I think the first four names are no-brainers and two of them are contractually guaranteed. It’s very possible Palat and/or Johnson gets dealt to boost the team’s defense but Yzerman will protect them here because of their value on the trade market is strong.

I chose Namestnikov over Cedric Paquette and Killorn because he’s proven to be a versatile piece in the lineup. He can play 20 minutes in a top six role or 11 in a bottom six role. He can play on either of the special teams. And when he was placed on the top line with Stamkos and Kucherov he was GOOD. Very good. Clearly he’s got to improve his production in the postseason and be a little more consistent in the regular season but if he’s put in the right position I could easily see Namestnikov producing better numbers than Killorn and being a 15-18 goal scorer with 30+ assists.

If Callahan waives his no move clause I would protect Paquette over Killorn. When Paquette is healthy he’s a pest. Every team needs a good pest. He’s the type of guy that no top scorer wants to see in the playoffs because he’s going to be on their behind from the first puck drop until the handshake line.

Killorn’s contract is an albatross. I don’t see him as a 25-goal scorer. I might be wrong but I don’t see it. Maybe Vegas does. The hope is that the Golden Knights won’t have enough scoring options to look past Killorn.

Defenseman:

Victor Hedman

Anton Stralman

Slater Koekkoek

Hedman is Hedman, no need to say any more. If the Lightning leave Stralman unprotected I believe he’s gone and I think his value on this team goes beyond the ice. He’s a natural leader and a guy who doesn’t allow excuses. He’s a great mentor for young guys because of his work ethic. Vegas would absolutely love a guy with a decent contract ($9M, two years remaining) that has the leadership qualities to bring together a new group.

I chose Koekkoek over Dotchin. Fans need to be careful about falling in love with Dotchin too quickly. For starters look who he’s playing next to and then ask yourself is Dotchin REALLY a top-line defenseman? Koekkoek might have taken a step back this year but there’s still a lot of upside here with his skating and abilities to move the puck. So put the two players side-by-side and ask yourself who’s got the greater potential to develop into a top-three defenseman. Koekkoek has the clear edge.

Goaltender:

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Not much to say here other than Vasilevskiy showed me enough in the final weeks to be excited about him having a full offseason to gain confidence as the No. 1 guy. I’m hoping the Lightning retain Peter Budaj too because Budaj seems like a heck of a guy and good, solid veteran play once every four games.

Vegas choses: I think Vegas will select Killorn or Dotchin if the Lightning protect the above list. If losing Dotchin isn’t desired this is probably the best-case scenario for the Lightning moving forward. If Stralman is left unprotected I believe he will be selected and the Lightning will be in the market for a defenseman through a trade of Palat, Johnson or Killorn.

From Chad:

Forwards:

Steven Stamkos

Ryan Callahan

Nikita Kucherov

Jonathan Drouin

Ondrej Palat

Tyler Johnson

Vladdy Namestnikov

Notable players exposed: Alex Killorn, JT Brown

Defensemen

Victor Hedman

Anton Stralman

Jake Dotchin

Notable players exposed: Andrej Sustr, Brayden Coburn, Jason Garrison, Slater Koekkoek

Goaltender:

Andrei Vasilevskiy

The big decisions for the Lightning really boils down to Vladdy vs Killorn and Koekkoek vs Dotchin. First, the forwards. Killorn may be one of the few players available for Vegas who can be a solid top-6 forward contributor. He’s still young, power forwards are rare, and his contract is affordable. But the contract term is atrocious. Six more years is a lot for a new team to commit to because they want flexibility. They need some impact players to get them through the first couple years of growing pains, but by that time they’ll still have three more years committed to Killorn, who may never hit 20 goals. Still, it’s a nice piece to have, but “commitment” and “Las Vegas” rarely go in the same sentence.

While Jon Cooper is an Alex Killorn fan, getting that long term contract off the books and giving Yzerman some more flexibility might be attractive. Vladdy is a forward chameleon. He can play on any line and that’s a nice asset to have. He doesn’t appear to be able to reach the 2C ceiling he had when he was drafted, but he could be the Lightning’s Ben Zobrist (utility player for you non-baseball fans).

On defense, I’ve wrestled with Dotchin vs Koekkoek for a few months now – and coming into this year I would have never thought there would ever even be a discussion like this. Dotchin has closed the gap on Koekkoek in terms of overall upside thanks to his breakout season. He was everything the Lightning needed in the last third of the year, providing a steady complement to Hedman, which (finally) rounded out the top-4. Koekkoek still has upside, but it doesn’t appear to be the 2-3 spot once projected. He can be a solid No. 4 in time capable of 25-30 points. For the Lightning, I think the threat of losing Dotchin after they already found the fit they were looking for is too great a risk. They keep Dotchin and my prediction is Koekkoek is playing in Vegas next year. There will be plenty of D for the Knights to pick from, but not many former first rounders who still have upside. That’s why he’s my Vegas pick, though I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if Yzerman has a trade up his sleeve to protect him. Keep an eye on Tyler Johnson and Vegas.

From Alexis and W.B. Philp from Lightning Shout:

We feel the Lightning will go with the seven forward, three defensemen and one goalie protection plan.

Forwards:

Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Ryan Callahan, Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat are the “for-sures” among the seven forwards. Vladislav Namestnikov could also be protected, provided the Bolts decide to not protect or trade Alex Killorn (6 years $4.45 million cap hit and a no-trade clause as of July 1). We feel that Killorn will be protected because of his much needed grit and his playoff scoring (15 goals and 37 points in 47 games).

Defensemen:

The three defenseman that the Lightning will protect are the Swedes, Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman along with…veteran Braydon Coburn (2 years at a $3.7 million cap hit) or the young 23 year old Jake Dotchin. Vegas will load up on defensemen so it seems that the Bolts may lose one of the two. We feel that GM Steve Yzerman will protect Dotchin as the third defenseman after he proved his worth this past season.

Goaltender:

Obviously the Lightning will protect goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The Lightning player selected by the Las Vegas Knights will be forward Vladislav Namestnikov to play with fellow Russian forward Vadim Shipachyov.

From Saima:

Protected List of choice: Seven forwards, Three defensemen, One goaltender

Forwards: Steve Stamkos (NMC), Ryan Callahan (NMC), Nikita Kucherov, Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Vladislav Namestnikov

Defensemen: Victor Hedman (NMC), Anton Stralman, Slater Koekkoek

Goaltender: Andrei Vasilevskiy

Since Stamkos, Callahan, and Hedman have no movement clauses they must be protected in the expansion draft. The first six forwards are fairly straightforward. In order of importance, it’s Stamkos, Kucherov, Drouin, Palat, Johnson, and Callahan.

That leaves two or three big names on the table for the last spot – Namestnikov, Alex Killorn, and the one nobody is really talking about, Yanni Gourde.

I chose Namestnikov for a few reasons. He’s four years younger than Killorn, much less expensive, and has great chemistry with the two star forwards for the Lightning, Stamkos and Kucherov. That line was dynamite earlier this season. The same cannot be said of Killorn and Stamkos or Killorn and Kucherov. Add in the fact that Killorn is on a seven-year deal with a no-trade clause and the choice to protect Namestnikov becomes even clearer.

The reason I chose not to protect Gourde is because he is a pending unrestricted free agent which makes it unlikely that Vegas will take him since he will be free to sign with any team on July 1.

On defense, the top two are easy choices: Hedman and Stralman. I think the third spot should go to Koekkoek, but I would also like to protect Jake Dotchin. General manager Steve Yzerman has shown that he is particularly protective of right-handed defenders like Dotchin (he wouldn’t send Luke Witkowski down to Syracuse to make him eligible for the AHL playoffs for fear that another team would claim him off of waivers). I wouldn’t be surprised to see Yzerman send a lower round draft pick to Vegas in exchange for a guarantee that Dotchin wouldn’t be selected in the draft. The netminder is an easy and obvious choice. Vasilevskiy is the clear number one goalie for Tampa.

Vegas will select: I think Vegas will take one of the NHL caliber forwards left unprotected, so in this case, Killorn.

From Trevor:

The Tampa Bay Lightning are in quite the spot in the upcoming expansion draft. With three of their top players restricted free agents Tampa will need to tread lightly. With all that being said I don’t expect the Vegas Golden Knights to target anyone too high on the perennial depth chart. As of now I foresee the Lightning protecting the following players:

Forwards

Steven Stamkos: This one goes without saying, especially since Stamkos has a no move clause in his contract.

Nikita Kucherov: This is a complete no brainer.

Ondrej Palat: This guy has blossomed into one of the top forwards in the league. He’s not going to be at the top of many scoring lists, but he is a solid two-way player. When free agency opens Palat is scheduled to be a restricted free agent.

Jonathan Drouin: With Stamkos injured for the majority of the season, Drouin stepped up along with forward Nikita Kucherov to guide this team. While he is a restricted free agent, due a substantial raise the Lightning would be foolish not to protect one of the best up and coming players in the league.

Ryan Callahan: Right now Callahan is bring protected due to his no move clause. Smart money would see the Lightning ask Callahan to waive it so they can protect someone else. Vegas more than likely wouldn’t take Callahan, due to his cap hit, length of contract and injury history. I am only including him due to his no move clause as of now.

Tyler Johnson: The final of the big three restricted free agents. Johnson should be protected, he has become a top tier forward in the league when healthy.

Alex Killorn: This one was a tough one. While Killorn did just sign a big contract this past offseason he’s been known to be a streaky player. If Callahan were to waive his no move clause, I could see the Lightning protecting Killorn and the player who could I think will be taken if Callahan doesn’t.

Defensemen

Victor Hedman: If Stamkos is the franchise forward, Hedman has to be the franchise defenseman. He also has a no move clause.

Anton Stralman: His veteran leadership and play is key for the Lightning going forward. While Stralman has a no trade clause, he does not have a no move clause. If you ask me he will be protected over Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn.

Jake Dotchin: The kid showed he belonged in the NHL, his play allowed the Lightning to split up Stralman and Hedman. He has earned the right to be protected, and a chance to continue his NHL career with the Lightning.

Goaltender

Andrei Vasilevskiy: When the Lightning traded Ben Bishop at the trade deadline, this became Vasilevskiy’s team. He does not have a no move clause, but the Lightning will 100% protect their young goalie.

Vegas will select:

Vladislav Namestnikov: While he is still young (only 24 years old) he could potentially have a high upside. He dropped seven points this past season from the season before, but he could be a player that hits 40-50 points a season consistently if placed on a high enough line. This really could go either way, if Callahan waives his no move clause it would allow the Lightning to protect Namestnikov and Killorn. Right now though Callahan has yet to do that, so he is my pick for the expansion draft.

Finally, here’s my look at the Lightning situation:

It’s pretty obvious that with the depth the Lightning have at forward, they will utilize the seven forward, three defensemen and goaltender option when deciding on which players to put on their protected list. The one area that Tampa Bay has not built up adequate depth on is the blue line as an organizational whole, but that’s a subject for a different time.

It’s not too hard to determine this list, to be honest and it’s going to almost certainly come down to one or two decisions as to the final players that Steve Yzerman and his staff elected to protect.

Here’s how I believe things will play out when the list is revealed on Sunday:

Forwards:

Steven Stamkos

Ryan Callahan

Nikita Kucherov

Ondrej Palat

Jonathan Drouin

Tyler Johnson

Vladislav Namestnikov

Defensemen

Victor Hedman

Anton Stralman

Jake Dotchin

Goaltender

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Stamkos, Hedman and Callahan are automatic protections due to their no-move clauses, although it doesn’t really matter, all three would likely have been protected regardless. (Somebody reading this is currently shaking their head thinking I’m out of my mind because of Callahan’s contract situation, but the organization thinks very highly of Callahan and what he brings to this team). Kucherov, Palat, Drouin and Johnson are, to me, also automatics to be protected. So the decision comes down to either Alex Killorn or Namestnikov as the seventh forward. And it comes down more of a business decision than anything else here. Talent wise, the two forwards are somewhat in the same class even if they are not exactly comparable players. But the decision to expose Killorn here comes down to his contract and thinking that the six years left on his contract prove to be a deterrent to Vegas, a team building from the ground floor, to bring on for that long while Namestnikov would be a more enticing player for the Golden Knights to select.

On defense, the decision comes down to Slater Koekkoek and Dotchin. And this might be the most difficult decision for the Lightning brass to make. So in the end it wouldn’t surprise me to either see if a side deal can be made to protect Vegas from taking whichever player is left exposed, or one of the two is dealt to another team so Tampa Bay receives compensation for losing either player rather than losing one for nothing. But since I’m not Yzerman, we have to leave one exposed and given Dotchin’s play this year combined with his right-handedness and physical approach to the game, it trumps the elite skating ability of Koekkoek who has not had that breakthrough moment to this point.

Goaltending: I don’t really need to explain this, do I?

Vegas selects: Slater Koekkoek – his first-round pedigree and skating ability while still just 22 years old fits the perfect profile for a team that is looking to build.

Let’s just say for argument’s sake that Tampa Bay works out a deal with Vegas not to select either Koekkoek or Dotchin. I could see Vegas selecting say Jason Garrison for the purpose of trading him to another team because he has an attractive contract in the sense that his cap hit is $4.6 million and his actual salary is $2.5 million. Of course, for Vegas, that contract could also help them ensure they get to the cap floor as well as reach the minimum 60-percent of the cap for the players they have to select.

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