The final week of the season for the Lightning: Who are they chasing and what are they facing?

by Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
April 3, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. – The focus now shifts for fans of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

While getting little to no help from any other teams around the league, the chances of the Lightning reaching the postseason this year has diminished. Even on a night in which Tampa Bay won, defeating Dallas 6-3, the chances of Tampa Bay reaching the postseason actually dropped, albeit less than half-of-a-percent.

So as Boston and Toronto, the two teams Tampa Bay has been chasing for the better part of the past month, continue to win games, how are the Lightning supposed to make up ground in the standings?

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By shifting the Scoreboard Watching to the team closest to them in the standings, a team that, as I mentioned on ”Lightning Power Play Live” with Greg Linnelli is playing Tom Petty hockey right now – Free Falling – is the Ottawa Senators.

The Senators have been near the top of the Atlantic Division standings for most of the season. Former Lightning head coach Guy Boucher, in his first year with Ottawa, has found a way to turn the Senators in to a surprise story this season.

But recently, the Senators have slipped. They headed in to Monday’s game at Detroit – which opens a home-and-home between the two teams – with a 1-3-1 record in the past five games and 2-5-3 in the past 10. They were riding a four-game winless streak in to Monday’s game, which increased to five after a shootout loss, a game Detroit led by two goals in the third period.

With Tampa Bay sitting four points behind the Senators and the current situation on the injury front – Ottawa will be without D Cody Ceci, D Marc Methot and C Zach Smith for the final week of the season while captain Erik Karlsson has been dealing with a foot injury that has kept him out the previous two games, though he flew to Detroit late Monday afternoon and was in the lineup – might be the opening the Lightning need to sneak in to the postseason.

The Lightning, however, want to keep a singular focus.

”We still have a chance and we believe,’’ defenseman Anton Stralman said.

That continues on Tuesday (7 p.m., NBCSN, 970-AM, tbolpowerplay) in Boston, which is still within reach of the Lightning. But Tampa Bay has to win that game in regulation and then see where it leads them after that before the Lightning head to Toronto on Thursday.

”We have to win those games,’’ Stralman said. “Lose them and we’re out. We’ve have a lot of pressure on us for a while. And they keep winning so we haven’t gotten any help and that’s fine. We can’t control that. So when it comes down the line this is all we can ask for. And the way we have been playing has taken us this far.’’

It may still not be enough.

Even if Tampa Bay runs the table in the final four games of the regular season – at Boston, at Toronto, at Montreal, vs. Buffalo – it does not guarantee a playoff spot. According to SportsClubStats.com, a 4-0 record in the final four games provides just a 94 percent chance to make the postseason.

That’s what the Lightning have in front of them.

”We can’t do anything more than win our games and see what happens at the end,’’ Stralman said. “Now it’s down to win or go home. Next game is a Game 7.”

So are the three after that.

”Pretty much, but we can manage that,’’ Stralman said. “It will be fun.’’

A look at what’s ahead for the rest of the week:

Ottawa started a home-and-home with Detroit on Monday, with the two teams meeting at Canadian Tire Centre on Tuesday in Ottawa. The Senators then close at Boston (Thursday) and a back-to-back against the New York Rangers and at the New York Islanders on Saturday and Sunday.

On the season, the Senators have struggled in divisional games, heading in to Monday’s game with a 12-12-3 record within the Atlantic Division. Against Detroit, the Senators were winless in the first two meetings heading in to Monday. Ottawa, however, has won the first three meetings this season against Boston, outscoring the Bruins 10-5.

Ottawa has also fared well against both the New York teams, a combined 3-0 against the Rangers and Islanders this season.

Boston, which vaulted up to second in the Atlantic after Sunday’s victory at Chicago, has just three games remaining, starting with Tuesday’s game against Tampa Bay. After that, the Bruins host Ottawa and close out the season on Saturday against Washington, which will likely have the President’s Trophy wrapped up by then and will almost certain rest goaltender Braden Holtby.

And Toronto, which now seems to be more entrenched in to a spot more than the other two teams with seven wins in the past eight games, has a difficult four game homestand remaining – at least on paper – ending the season with games against Washington (Tuesday), Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Columbus. The Leafs have a combined record of 5-3-2 this season against those four opponents this season. But with the seeding in the Metro division all but locked in place, you wonder how much the three Metro teams will put in to their efforts as they look toward the postseason.

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