Breaking down the schedule: Who has the easier path to the final playoff spot?

by Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
March 20, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. – Buckle up, the final 21 days of the season are going to be a bumpy, emotional ride.

With three teams – Tampa Bay, Toronto and New York Islanders updated also to include Boston– within two points of each for the final wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference standings, there will be plenty of scoreboard watching taking place – at least from the fans.

”To be honest, you are going to drive yourself crazy if you keep going to the standings and check how did Toronto do, how did the Islanders do, on and on and on,’’ Lightning head coach Jon Cooper said. “The bottom line is you have to come to work and pull points out of games because if we don’t get any points out of games there is no sense in looking at the standings.’’

Well, we know Cooper may not be keeping close tabs on the standings, but there will be plenty of other eyes keeping an eye on them. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the upcoming schedule for each of the three teams vying for the final spot and see who has the easier path to the final postseason berth.

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Toronto holds the upper-hand at the moment, sitting two points ahead of the Lighting and one point in front of the Islanders. The Leafs hold a game in hand on both teams.

But based on the remaining schedule, it is Toronto that has the most difficult path to reach the playoffs. Of the 12 games left for the Leafs, the combined points percentage is .576. On Toronto’s schedule are a pair of games with Columbus – which has already clinched a playoff spot but is battling with Washington and Pittsburgh for the top spot in the Metro Division. Toronto also has games remaining with Pittsburgh and Washington. The final four games for the Leafs are, in order: Washington, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Columbus.

If Toronto is to claim the wildcard spot, the Leafs likely need a bit of cushion leading in to the final week of the season.

The Islanders have a bit of a less difficult schedule for their final 11 games, with a combined points percentage of their remaining opponents at .554. The toughest stretch for New York is in the early part of the remaining games, with the next two at the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh this week plus a home game against Boston. New York also has a pair of games left with Nashville, who is fighting for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference. But there are also a pair of games left with New Jersey. New York closes out the season against Ottawa.

Tampa Bay has the easiest remaining schedule with a combined points percentage of .545 in the final 11 games.

The Lightning have a game left with Arizona as well as Dallas, two of the bottom teams in the Western Conference and close the season at home against Buffalo. There are also two games left against Detroit, which looks like it is taking a nose-dive as they will see a 25-year playoff streak come to an end.

But Tampa Bay also has a game against Chicago – the top team in the Western Conference – two at Boston and a pair of games against Montreal. Then there is that important game at Toronto on April 6.

So the final push is on, the chase is real and each game will be like a playoff game and will have an impact on the standings – even if some won’t be paying attention.

Updated on March 22: Boston has nine games remaining on its schedule, two of which are against Tampa Bay. The Bruins also have a key meeting against the Islanders on Saturday March 25 along with games against Nashville, Chicago and Ottawa before closing out the season against Washington.

The combined points percentage of the teams remaining on Boston schedule is .576, the same as Toronto had in its final 12 games. But one advantage Boston holds in the final two-plus weeks is seven of the final nine games are at home, with only road games left at the Islanders and Chicago.

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