The curious case of Ben Bishop: trade him or keep him?

by Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
February 24, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. – The trade deadline is rapidly approaching. Steve Yzerman has some serious decisions to make.

Are the Lightning a buyer? A seller? Neither?

Good chance this all comes down to the wire before he fully commits one way or the other.

And of course the biggest decision he has to make is what to do with goaltender Ben Bishop, who is all but certain to playing elsewhere next season no matter what decision Yzerman makes before Wedensday’s deadline.

So let’s lay it out there and offer reasons why Tampa Bay should hang on to Bishop and reasons why the team should move the pending unrestricted free agent.

{mprestriction ids=”1,2″}

Bishop is in the final year of a contract that carries a salary cap hit of $5.95 million. A new deal will almost certainly go north of that number, depending on the number of years on a new contract. As a two-time Vezina Trophy finalist, he expects to be paid in the range of the top echelon goaltenders in the league. He currently has the 10th highest salary cap hit among goaltenders – Henrik Lundqvist, Sergei Bobrovsky, Pekka Rinne, Tuukka Rask, Carey Price, Braden Holtby, Corey Crawford, Ryan Miller and Corey Schneider are the only other goaltenders with a higher cap hit.

Of that group, six have won the Vezina Trophy – Lundqvist, Bobrovsky, Rask, Price, Holtby and Miller.

So it’s not outlandish to suggest Bishop will be over $6 million on his next deal, if not close to $7 million, and that’s likely a number Tampa Bay can’t afford. And with 22-year-old Andrei Vasilevskiy behind him ready to assume the No. 1 job next season, at a cap hit of $3.5 million per season for the next three years that begins next season.

With just one game left for the Lightning before the trade deadline, Tampa Bay enters the weekend (they are off until Monday) sitting six points out of a playoff spot, a gap that will likely widen before they get back on the ice. It’s a monumental task to suggest they will be able to overcome – according to sportsclubstats.com that chances dropped to 7.9 percent after Thursday’s loss to Calgary, dropping 7.2 percent – though not impossible with 13 games still remaining against Atlantic Division opponents.

Before laying out the rationale for both sides of the equation, I’ll say this: if Tampa Bay was clearly entrenched in a playoff spot or well out of the race, the decision here for Yzerman would be easy.

Here is the case to keep Ben Bishop:

Bishop has finally started to look like the Bishop we are accustomed to seeing, the one who has been a Vezina Finalist twice the past three seasons. He is riding a 5-0 streak, not allowing more than two goals in any of those starts, sporting a 1.17 goals against average and .952 save percentage.

Bishop would give Tampa Bay the best chance to overcome those long odds to make the playoffs. He’s looked comfortable, confidence and in control around his crease during the five game stretch. He’s made the saves when he needs to, including on Sunday in Colorado, when he made some ten-bell saves particularly in the first period.

His ability to handle the puck adds a dimension to the team that few teams have, getting the puck up the ice quicker and start breakouts to jumpstart the transition game. And the team, for whatever reason, seems to play with a certain type of swagger when Bishop is in net while Vasilevskiy, who has played brilliantly at times, doesn’t seem to get the offensive support when he’s in net. In the seven starts Vasilevskiy has made since Ben Bishop returned from injury, the team has been held to one goal in five of those starts and two or fewer in six.

Since Bishop returned, Tampa Bay played 18 games with a 8-6-4 record. Bishop has been in net for 10 of those games, posting a 7-2-1 record. Vasilevskiy has started eight games, going 1-4-3 in those games.

If the intent is to make the playoffs this season, the right play is to keep Bishop and roll the dice. Assuming the intention is to not sign him to an extension, then Yzerman could keep him for a possible playoff run for a team that is still capable of doing some damage if they get in to the postseason, they trade Bishop’s rights before July 1. The return won’t be great, but it’s better than losing Bishop for nothing.

The case for trading Bishop:

Tampa Bay has a 92.1 percent chance of NOT making the playoffs. At this point, getting in to the playoffs might be a bigger accomplishment than Ottawa in 2015, which got hot in the final two-plus months and reached the postseason when they were 14 points out at the start of February.

But we are at the end of February. The gap is just six points (for the moment) but will almost certainly widen by Monday when the Lightning host Ottawa, making the climb that much more difficult.

It makes too much sense in that scenario, Bishop should be traded. Find a way to get a return for a top-tier goaltender rather than lose him for nothing this summer. Any deal now will be better for the Lightning than trading his negotiating rights in June.

Vasilevskiy, who signed a three-year extension on July 1, is going to be the starter next year, despite his critics. That’s all but been decided, despite how this season has gone. It was nearly his team this year when the team tried to work out a deal with Calgary in the summer.

Then, there was a report that came out of the St. Louis Post Dispatch late Thursday that said a deal between Tampa Bay and St. Louis that would have involved defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk was nixed by the blue liner around six weeks ago when he did not agree to a seven year, $42 million contract extension. That deal, which was discussed around the time the Blues were having goaltending issues, likely involved Bishop in some capacity.

It was also learned on Thursday that Bishop, who has a no-move clause in his contract, does not have a full no-move, no-trade clause. The website CapFriendly revealed that Bishop has a modified no-trade clause, provided a list of eight teams that he would block a trade to during the season. That means there are 21 teams the Lightning could trade him to without requiring permission from the player.

So Yzerman has a bit more flexibility to try to move Bishop than previously thought.

With that in mind, Yzerman should do what is in the best interest of the franchise, gain assets in return for Bishop as the roster gets a bit of an overhaul this summer as the Lightning have salary cap issues to deal with starting next season.

By trading Bishop, there is the chance to shore up some of the weaknesses on the team heading in to the off-season. In the current state of where the season stands, it’s the best move for Yzerman to make. Can’t be fooled by the six-point gap in the standings, making the postseason is a long shot.

Here is a poll I’m running on Twitter:

Poll: With five days before the trade deadline and Tampa Bay six points out of a playoff spot, should #TBLightning trade Ben Bishop?

— Lightning Insider (@Erik_Erlendsson) February 24, 2017

{/mprestriction}