Commentary: How to handle the goaltending situation.

by Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
February 20, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. – What to do about the goaltending

How do the Lightning handle that situation between now and March 1, when the NHL trading deadline comes to pass?

As it sits going in to Tuesday’s home game against Edmonton 7:30 p.m, Fox Sports Sun, 970-AM, the Lightning remain six points out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Which means, even while riding a season-best six-game point streak (4-0-2) after the dramatic overtime victory in Colorado on Sunday, Tampa Bay has gained a total of two points in the standings.

So as Tampa Bay appears to be on the type of run it knew they needed to have any chance to make the postseason, a move up the standings hasn’t exactly taken place to this point as on Feb. 3, while occupying the basement in the conference standings, they sat eight points out of the playoffs.

If you’re Steve Yzerman, what do you do with the goaltending?

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Ben Bishop has looked to be in his old form. He’s won four consecutive games, posting a 1.22 goals against average and .953 save percentage. He’s the hot hand, and logic dictates that when you are a team desperate for wins, that’s who gets the call in net.

If the Lightning are to continue to build on the momentum gained from the six-game stretch, then Bishop figures to be the goaltender to lead them that way. A six-point gap seems manageable, in theory, even with a handful of teams to jump over.

Of the remaining 24 games on the schedule, 13 are against Atlantic Division opponents, offering the hint that if the momentum continues and the wins pile up, it allows the chance to make up ground. In addition, 15 of the remaining games are on home ice.

So there’s the glimmer of hope, it’s a road full of pitfalls along the way, but if they can be avoided and smooth ground can be established, it can be done.

But what do you do with the goaltending?

The probability of making the playoffs for Tampa Bay is 12.3 percent, according to Hockey-Reference.com. Statistically speaking, those are long odds. So many things have to happen for the Lightning to overcome those odds. Not only would Tampa Bay have to keep the momentum going and start to string wins together at a rapid rate, other teams ahead of them have to start falling. Just like the Rays and Game No. 162 back in 2011, the Boston Red Sox had to slip in order for Tampa Bay to jump through the door.

The Lightning need five teams to fall. And in the era of three-point games, that’s a difficult scenario to see coming to fruition.

With just the three games remaining before the trade deadline, Steve Yzerman has to make a decision – keep Ben Bishop, ride him to wherever he leads the team and hope those long odds can be overcome; or, understanding those long odds, move Bishop before the trade deadline and gain some sort of an asset in return for a goaltender that has finished in the top three in the Vezina Trophy voting twice in the previous three season.

Yzerman keeps things very close to the vest, rarely do leaks about his intentions make it to the surface. But he is also a pragmatic thinker, calculating everything out before he opts to make any sort of a move.

Given his track record combined with the statistical improbability staring his team in for the final stretch, it’s seems pretty clear which direction this should go.

Unless offers are failing to come in, or are low ball in nature, in the name of doing what is best for the franchise, Yzerman should move out Bishop and go ahead and hand the team over to Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is the projected starter after this season regardless as Bishop, who will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, is not expected to return, barring any unforeseen last-minute change in philosophy on the the team’s part. The projected flat salary cap for next season suggests that’s nearly impossible.

So if you are the Lightning, knowing that Bishop might be your best chance to get on that magical run, do you keep him and let it ride? Or is it best not to gamble on those long odds and protect the future of the franchise and move Bishop?

What do you do with the goaltending

The answer will be revealed in a week’s time.

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