Looking at trade deadline strategy Lightning should take

by Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
February 8, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. – The NHL trade deadline is less than a month away.

That means silly season is nearly at hand. It’s that time of year around the league when every pending UFA is on the trading block, every team needs a top four defenseman and every time scratches are announced prior to a game, a buzz begins trying to find out exactly why they were scratched.

The trade deadline, though, is always a topic of conversation right up until the deadline passes – this year on March 1 – and then for a few days beyond.

So what should we expect from the Lightning as we enter silly season?

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First, just to show how things can be this time of the year, when the Lightning announced on Tuesday that Alex Killorn was a scratch before facing the Los Angeles Kings, just about everybody in the press box – not to mention on Twitter – immediately wondered if it was because of a trade.

It wasn’t, and as quickly as possible, the team put out word that Killorn was out due to injury quickly squelching any speculation.

Then, as the Lightning announced on Wednesday that Joel Vermin and Michael Bournival had been reassigned to Syracuse of the American Hockey League, it’s hard not to have the thought if it’s a roster-clearing move. (Most likely it means Ondrej Palat is ready to return from Injury and Killorn is expected back in the lineup. Or it’s a move to save as much salary cap space as possible leading up to the deadline since the Lightning don’t play until Friday)

That sort of thought process is only natural for a team that has been mired near the bottom of the conference standings for the better part of the past few weeks.

That’s because teams in that position tend to be active at the trade deadline. I expect the Lightning to be active.

This came up during a conversation with Greg Linnelli during our conversation on Lightning Power Play Live before Tuesday’s victory against Los Angeles and how Tampa Bay should conduct business at the deadline.

Right now, they are sellers. That should not be debated. Even with consecutive victories for the first time since Dec 20-22, the Lightning still sit tied for last in the Eastern Conference. Sure, it’s just a five-point gap to get in to a playoff position, but keep in mind they have to climb over eight teams to get to that spot and the Lightning have their “bye week’’ coming next week when they will be idle for six days while most of the rest of the league is playing games.

Here’s what I suggested last night with Greg: Steve Yzerman is a pragmatic general manager and rarely reacts from emotion. He takes a step back, analyzes the situation, seeks the advice and input of his staff and then makes his decision. Once he does, it usually leads to action. I think he’s made the decision on how he will approach things before March 1 and I think he’s looking to start making some of the roster changes that were going to need to take place before the expansion draft.

There was one good question that Greg proposed, however, that assuming Yzerman has decided the route he’s going to take, would he change it around if he feels the team can still make the playoffs?

It’s an interesting debate and one the The Hockey News tackled on Wednesday. In my opinion, Yzerman’s approach should not change, even after winning the past two games. The only thing that it would take to shift this approach would be if the Lightning somehow reeled off about five more wins in a row.

There are seven more games before the trade deadline, with six of those coming against Western Conference teams. After that, it’s a very heavy Eastern Conference opponent schedule as well as a division-heavy schedule with 13 games still remaining against Atlantic Division teams.

That’s not a lot of time to change one’s mind, even if there is a glimmer of opportunity that has presented itself. It’s still filled with a lot of what-if scenarios. But the biggest what-if might be: what if you stand pat, try to be a buyer and miss out on the postseason anyway? How much does it set the franchise back as Tampa Bay undergoes a roster makeover.

So to me, here’s what the approach should be:

* See what the market is for Ben Bishop, find the best offer and see if you can convince him to accept a trade elsewhere. He has a no-move clause in his deal, so he would have to give his blessing to any deal that Tampa Bay wants to make. But if you are losing Bishop for nothing at the end of the season regardless, better to get some return for him at this point than to get nothing when he skates in to the free agent market this summer.

* Use some of the forward depth throughout the organization and find help on defense. With Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin, Andrej Sustr and Slater Koekkoek all restricted free agents at the end of the season, there is not enough room to bring everybody back. So if that means having to move Johnson, who makes $3.3 million this season and is up for a significant raise on his new deal, then Tampa Bay needs to explore this route. Brayden Point, who has already assumed a top role at center, is a similar player and could fill Johnson’s role.

* Valtteri Filppula has one year left on his deal and carries a $5 million cap hit next season. Filppula has a 16-team no-trade clause in his contract (he submits a list in June of 16 teams he would be willing to accept a trade, according to CapFriendly.) and with Stanley Cup experience and plenty of playoff experience with 152 postseason games under his belt. He could be somebody playoff teams are looking to add with his versatility to play center or wing and to add on the penalty kill and power play.

* Explore possibly moving Jason Garrison, who carries a $4.6 million cap hit, which is the biggest on the team this season. Garrison has a no-trade clause and would have to accept any deal. But he’s a veteran who can fill a No. 5 role on a playoff team or a No. 4 as a veteran on a team with a young defensive core. His salary would also be attractive for some teams as he drops from $3.6 million this season to $2.5 million for the 2017-18 season.

Tampa Bay needs to shed salary to revamp some of the roster, and if they are able to move Bishop, Johnson, Filppula and Garrison, that’s a combined $18.8 million off the salary cap (actually more if you factored in whatever raise Johnson would/will receive next season)

So who could the Lightning possibly target in return for some of these moves?

There have been some whispers of possibly targeting Jacob Trouba, who requested a trade out of Winnipeg and held out before signing shortly in to the season, with Bishop as a piece going the other way. But Bishop would have to be convinced of waiving his no-trade clause while the Jets would need assurances of a contract extension for Bishop. Trouba fits the exact bill Tampa Bay needs, a young, right-handed defenseman with contract control for the short-term.

Yzerman was down in Sunrise watching the Ducks play on Feb. 3. Anaheim has an abundance of young defensemen and will likely lose one of them to the expansion draft this summer. So the Ducks are open for business, if not now, then before the expansion draft, when it comes to dealing some of that depth. Among those that have been bantered about as potential targets include: Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson, Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour. Of that group, Vatenen, Manson and Montour are right-handed shots. All of them are 25-or-younger.

Others to possibly keep an eye on: Shayne Gostisbehere in Philadelphia, a finalist for the Calder Trophy last year, who has found himself a healthy scratch of late with the Flyers as he struggles in his second year in the NHL. Same goes for John Klingberg in Dallas.

Kevin Shattenkirk in St. Louis seemed like a perfect fit a few weeks back, but the pending unrestricted free agent can’t be viewed as a rental for the Lightning. Any deal would have to come with assurances he signs a new deal. Buffalo’s Dmitry Kulikov falls in to a similar category as a pending UFA.

Knowing Yzerman, there are other options that are not on the radar. But there are plenty of options for whatever direction Yzerman wants to go, though it’s pretty clear at this point which path he should take before the trade deadline.

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