Path to the playoffs daunting task for Tampa Bay Lightning, but not impossible

by Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
February 5, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. – Bring out your clichés.

It ain’t over until it’s over.

So you’re saying there’s a chance

It’s not over until the Fat Lady sings

You’ve heard them all before, trying to keep hope alive.

And this is why we love sports – because they are all true, just as Sunday’s Super Bowl taught us.

{mprestriction ids=”1,2″}

Down and out. The end of a legacy. Game over.

They were all uttered at various points during the game on Sunday. After the Falcons converted a pick-six to take a 21-0 lead. In the third quarter when the score was 28-3. At the start of the fourth quarter and Atlanta holding a 19-point lead. Then once again when Julio Jones made an incredible toe-tapping reception along the sidelines to put the Falcons in field goal territory in the fourth quarter and on the verge of clinching the first championship in franchise history and just the second pro sports title for the city of Atlanta.

It was over, expect it wasn’t. The Patriots had the most incredible rally in football history, scoring 19 points in the fourth quarter – converting a pair of two-point conversions along the way – before winning the game on the opening drive of overtime.

From “The Falcons can’t lose’’ to “What did the Patriots just do?’’ in seemingly the blink of an eye.

It’s not over until it’s over.

So take heart Lightning fans, because it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.

Sure, the task seems monumental. Perhaps it looks impossible. Sitting at the bottom of the NHL standings on Feb. 6 is not a good look. Trying to climb over eight other teams in the conference in less than 30 games; that’s what is facing the Lightning.

According to HockeyReference.com playoff predictions, Tampa Bay has a 5.4 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. So with my limited math skills, the Lightning have a 94.6 percent of NOT making the playoffs this season.

There’s no way to sugar coat those numbers, the optics are not good.

But to steal a quote from Han Solo, the Lightning have the attitude right now of “Never tell me the odds.’’

Because as long as there is a chance, hope is alive.

All Tampa Bay has to do is look at the 2014-15 Ottawa Senators, which sat 14 points out of a playoff spot at the beginning of February before putting together an historic run to qualify for the postseason. The Senators pulled this off while missing their top two goaltenders – Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner.

The Lightning, though sitting in 16th place in the conference, do not have that big of a point-gap to overcome as they sit seven points back. Some of the numbers are a little skewed due to the “bye week’’ implemented for each team this season, something Tampa Bay will experience next week with a five-day break from team activities and seven days between games.

So that brings us to the playoff predictor from Hockey Reference, noted above. The current projection of points needed for the No. 8 team in the Eastern Conference is 90 points, a number that’s a little lower than many of the previous seasons, but with the East full of parity this season, teams are condensed in the standings.

For the Lightning to get to 91 points, they need to earn 39 more points in the final 29 games of the season. Based on that projection, Tampa Bay needs to pick up 67 percent of the remaining 58 available points.

Now the task does not seem quite as daunting as it did a few paragraphs higher. Getting to 39 points means a record around 16-7-7, or 18-7-4, something in that neighborhood. That’s not an easy stretch for a team that has not won back-to-back games since Dec. 20-22 nor has shown any signs of being able to string together a stretch of consistent games it would need to get in to the playoffs.

But it’s not impossible.

So you’re saying there’s a chance.

That’s what I’m saying.

{/mprestriction}