November ends with a thud for Lightning

by Erik Erlendsson | @Erik_Erlendsson | Like us on Facebook
November 29, 2016

TAMPA, Fla. – Numbers, numbers, numbers.

Some observers only want to look at numbers when evaluating a team’s performance. But numbers can always be interpreted however somebody wants to manipulate them. They are not the end of a story or the only way to make an argument.

This is not meant to be any sort of a rail against advanced stats. That debate can, and probably will, rage on eternally with each side trying to impose their viewpoint on the other, going back and forth until it turns in to a heated situation.

So with the numbers in mind, I went back to look at some recent history with this team since Jon Cooper took over in regards to the early months of the season. Fueled by the recent three-game losing streak to close out the month of November, I wanted to look at recent history in the early stages of the season and if there were any similar trends.

First, the Lightning finished November with a record of 8-6-1 and a combined record of 13-10-1, earning 27 points.

Not great, but good enough for third in the Atlantic Division, seven points behind Montreal.

So where does that stand compared to the first two months in other seasons?

Right in line, for the most part, with other recent seasons.

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In Cooper’s first season in 2013-14, Tampa Bay finished November with an 8-5-1 record and were 16-9-1 overall. This was the season Steven Stamkos broke his leg on Nov. 11.

In year two, the year the Lightning advanced to the Stanley Cup Final, Tampa Bay posted a 9-3-1 record in November and sat 16-6-2 through the first two months of the season.

Last season, Tampa Bay went 6-6-1 in November and sat 11-11-3 overall by the end of the month.

So in looking at those numbers, this year is not any sort of an anomaly in the Cooper era in terms of the team’s record after the first two months of the season.

One thing to keep in perspective for where the team stands right now, they are playing without their No. 1 center – Stamkos is out until at least March following surgery to repair a partially torn meniscus in his right knee – and No. 2 defenseman Anton Stralman, who has been out since Nov. 12 after suffering an upper-body injury.

These are two key players out of the lineup and it’s going to have a ripple effect throughout the lineup. And Stralman’s absence might be the bigger of the two loses.

Of course being without Stamkos takes a top scorer and key power play contributor out of the lineup. But the Lightning are deeper among the forward ranks and capable of absorbing a loss of this magnitude, even if it is Stamkos.

With Stralman out of the lineup, it creates a bigger hole on the blue line and there is nobody who can fill that role. Stralman plays big minutes, takes on top lines, kills penalties and is on the power play.

The ripple effect on the defensive core is greater and has more of an impact on the team. And in their own end is where the Lightning have struggled the most in recent games.

That’s not a coincidence.

So what does that mean moving forward?

First off, Stralman will return. He’s been skating with the team and has been cleared for contact, so it’s only a matter of time before he’s back in the lineup.That will be a big boost.

But, as recent history does suggest, the team will refocus and regroup as the coaching staff makes adjustments.

Under Cooper, the Lightning have been a solid team in the final four months of the season the past three years.

In December Tampa Bay has gone 7-3-3 (2013-14), 8-5-2 (2014-15) and 7-5-1 last season.

In January they have gone 8-6-1, 8-4 and 9-2 respectively.

So while some want to point to certain numbers to make their argument based on the first two months of the season, other numbers suggest that Tampa Bay will get things back pointed in the right direction.

If not, somebody will point to some other numbers to tell a different story.

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